Bryan Goodwin
Research Says
Don’t Overlook Middle-Skill Jobs
Could the
time-honored
adage that
there’s no better
investment
than a college
education no
longer be true?
Recently, as many new college graduates have entered the labor market with big debts and weak job prospects, some
economists have begun to wonder whether we
may be witnessing the bursting of yet another
investment bubble: higher education (
Surowiecki, 2011).
With annual tuition at some colleges surpassing $50,000 and unemployment rates
rising among college graduates, could the time-honored adage that there’s no better investment
than a college education
no longer be true? By
extension, should we revisit
the “college-for-all” rallying cry of many education
reform efforts?
The Forgotten Middle
Comparing college graduates with high school
graduates also overlooks another important part
of the picture: middle-skill jobs that require a
two-year degree, occupational license, or certi-
fication. Two-year degree holders, especially in
high-demand occupations, can earn salaries that
surpass those of college graduates (Carnevale,
Rose, & Cheah, 2011). To wit: 22 percent of
workers with associate’s degrees earn more
than median bachelor’s degree holders, and
14 percent earn more than
median graduate degree
holders (Carnevale, Strohl,
& Smith, 2009).
Workers with two-year
degrees in STEM subjects
(science, technology, engi-
neering, and math), in
fact, have greater average
lifetime earnings than
college graduates in most
other career areas. Con-
sider, for example, the
lifetime earnings of these
two-year degrees: com-
puter software engineers ($3.0 million); aircraft
mechanics ($2.3 million); and electricians ($2.1
million). All exceed average lifetime earnings of
college-educated school administrators ($2.0
million); writers and editors ($2.0 million); and
teachers ($1.8 million) (Carnevale, Rose, &
Cheah, 2011).
One reason for the low earnings among
bottom-quartile college graduates may be
that the number of college-educated workers
exceeds the number of college-level jobs available. According to one analysis of U.S. Bureau
of Labor Statistics data, 35 percent of the
49 million college graduates in the workforce
have jobs that require less than a college degree
(Vedder, 2010). For example, 30 percent of
flight attendants, 16 percent of bartenders, and
13 percent of waiters and waitresses are college
Bryan Goodwin is
vice president of
communications,
McREL, Denver,
Colorado; goodwin@
mcrel.org. He is the
author of Simply
Better: What Matters
Most to Change the
Odds for Student
Success (ASCD, 2011).
Does a College
Degree Pay?
Despite the current hand-wringing, college graduates still earn significantly
more than nongraduates
on average. According to
the Georgetown University
Center on Education and the Workforce, the
difference in median lifetime earnings between
college and high school graduates has widened
in recent years, growing from 75 percent in
1999 to 84 percent in 2009 (Carnevale, Rose, &
Cheah, 2011).
However, these averages mask important realities—namely, wide variances in lifetime earnings among college graduates. Those at the 25th
percentile, for example, earn about $1.5 million
over their lifetimes, whereas those at the 75th
percentile earn $3.4 million. In fact, bottom-quartile college graduates actually earn less over
their lifetimes than do high school graduates at
the 75th percentile, who earn $1.9 million (
Carnevale, Rose, & Cheah, 2011). Stated simply, a
college diploma alone is no guarantee of more
income.
