Dropouts:
Finding the Needles
in the Haystack
Which students are in danger of dropping out? Accurate data
can help schools find these students and keep them in school.
Eric Sparks, Janet L. Johnson, and Patrick Akos
It’s not news—U.S. high schools are facing a dropout crisis. Although official estimates vary, a growing consensus has emerged that only about 7 in 10 students successfully complete high
school (Stillwell & Hoffman, 2008; Swanson,
2008). Those who drop out face the prospect
of higher unemployment and incarceration
rates and lower lifetime earnings (Sum, Khati-wada, Mclaughlin, & Palma, 2009).
To address this problem most effectively,
schools need to know who drops out and
why. The 2004 Dropout Prevention Act iden-tifies variables that may indicate potential
dropouts. These include poor attendance, low
grade point average, low standardized test
scores, low reading and math scores, special
program placement, grade retention, discipline referrals and suspensions, low
socioeconomic status, frequent
school moves, teen parenthood, and certain kinds of
family status (for example,
coming from a single-parent
family). However, the act cites
no comprehensive research
indicating what combination of
factors actually affects a student’s likelihood of
dropping out (U.S. Department of Education,
2004).
Too often, schools use demographic factors
to identify students who are “at risk” of
failing. This practice can lead to stereotyping,
delivering inappropriate services, or denying
opportunities to certain student groups.
Although it is well known that students in
certain minority groups are more likely to
drop out, individual students do not drop out
because they are minorities. Other factors
play a role, and data can help schools determine what those factors are.
A study we recently conducted in a large,
southeastern U.S. school district attempted to
identify the forces driving dropout rates so
that the district could implement realistic and
viable dropout prevention strate-
gies. By identifying factors
that were characteristic of
students who dropped
out, we hoped to help
educators target dropout
prevention efforts to
students who needed
them most.
